What Does Being Early on Bitcoin Look Like? Bitcoin Adoption and the Parabolic Move to Come (and it's soon)
You've seen the phrase, "we are SO early," in reference to the beginning days of bitcoin. But, what does being early mean and what does it look like? Some really interesting metrics tell the story.
I’ve been studying investing for a few decades now. I claim no expertise, but I think I have a solid knowledge of investing. I’ve studied many different investors. I’ve learned their investment philosophy and from that created my own investing framework.
In short, there are a few main tenants to my investment philosophy:
Invest early
Invest often
Invest for a long time horizon
Diversify
Continue to learn
One of the frustrations I had as a younger investor is not having the access (or capital) to invest in early-stage companies, pre-IPO. Some people look at post-IPO stage companies and think, “I missed it.” Some people also look at companies that have gone public and think, “I missed it.”
If you would have bought Amazon in its first year with a $10,000 investment, today it would be worth millions.
So, what does “invest early” mean?
Let’s look at a typical adoption curve:
There are a couple of different metrics to look at, but an important one is the number of bitcoin wallets. Before you say anything, I realize that one person can have many wallets, however, some exchanges have few wallets with the co-mingled funds of thousands, if not millions of users.
Putting aside the “multi-wallet” argument, there are a few metrics that provide an estimate on the number of bitcoin wallets and the growth in wallets.
Statista uses a metric looking at Blockchain.com bitcoin wallets, which puts the number at around 70 million.
A Business Insider article cited an internal study at Crypto.com that claim that worldwide users of “crypto” (not bitcoin) was over 106 million.
A July 2021 article from Coin Telegraph indicated that the population of crypto users in now over 200 million worldwide.
What are we to glean from this information?
My first take away is that the true number of bitcoin users is unknowable.
We don’t know how many people have how many wallets. However, we can infer from the information that likely some number between 25 and 200 million people are using or have purchased bitcoin.
Let’s now do some simple math:
If 25 million people have bought/use bitcoin, that is equal to 0.3% of the world population, or the low-end estimate of this article.
If 200 million people have bought/use bitcoin, that is equal to 2.6% of the world population, or the high-end estimate of this article.
Now let’s go back to that adoption curve again (you don’t have to scroll back up, I’m dropping it here again because I’m that kind of guy):
You’ll notice in the first area on the left, the “enthusiasts” or early adopters make up the first 2.5% of adoption, and THEN the adoption curve really starts to go parabolic as the “visionaries” and “pragmatists” jump on board.
Where does 0.3% and 2.6% fit in on that adoption curve? You got it, right there at the very beginning of things.
We are early my friends. You are early. Welcome.
Once again, I thank you for your time and attention. I hope this has been helpful. I hope to see you here again next time.
Kind regards,
Ryan
The other stuff…
If you like this, please share it. Knowledge is power and you can be a part of sharing the bitcoin message to others through sharing this article.
If you REALLY liked this and want to support this publication, you can send a bitcoin tip to the following address:
3FgZoLzLqJDRKTxy6gYTtbqfG7eA1kZqae
Lastly, if you find a correction, typo, grammatical error, or have a comment, shoot me an email to plebish@substack.com. Otherwise, catch me on Twitter @ogkrb.
DISCLAIMER: Opinions are my own. Nothing on this site or in any post should be considered financial advise. Always do your own research and consult with certified professionals before making financial decisions.